Puerto Ricans were in the national spotlight during the last weeks of the US presidential campaign at the same time as Puerto Rico was experiencing its own historic 2024 elections. In addition to elections for all elected positions across state government, the elections in Puerto Rico included a referendum on the political status of the Island in relation to the United States and a symbolic presidential ballot.. On October 11th, El Nuevo Día, the largest newspaper in Puerto Rico, published a poll that estimated Trump’s support at 30% among Puerto Ricans on the island (1). However, results from the symbolic presidential ballot on election day showed an even stronger rejection of Trump (23%) in favor of Harris (77%) (2). And, while only 2% of all voters in Puerto Rico cast a vote using the symbolic presidential ballot, this represented a 7% swing away from Trump in less than a month’s time.
As many are aware, insulting comments were made about Puerto Rico during the Trump rally held at Madison Square Garden on October 27th and spread like wildfire from New York City to Puerto Rico, and throughout the worldwide network of Puerto Ricans living around the globe. It took about 5 minutes after I had seen a video of the supposed joke while sitting in my living room in the Bronx for my parents in Puerto Rico to message me on WhatsApp about the incident. The insult to our beloved collection of islands in the Caribbean sent shockwaves throughout Puerto Rican communities on the mainland, and activated Democratic political strategists to capitalize on the misstep of the Republican presidential campaign. There were multiple campaign ads crafted by the Harris campaign and by other Democrat-leaning interest groups that used footage of the insult to Puerto Rico as a way to persuade and mobilize Puerto Ricans to vote for Kamala Harris for president. While this turn of events might have shifted voting behavior among Puerto Ricans in key states like Pennsylvania, it did not change the ultimate outcome of the US presidential election.
In the aftermath of the Madison Square Garden Trump rally, an Univisión/YouGov poll of 400 Latinos in Pennsylvania showed that 69% of respondents found the remarks about Puerto Rico to be “more racist than humorous,” and that 71% of Puerto Ricans in the poll found the comments to be reflective of racism in the Trump campaign. The poll also found that 64% of all respondents intended to vote for Vice President Harris, versus 30% who said they intended to vote for Trump (3). This data along with the campaign ads appealing to Puerto Rican voters in culturally competent ways probably helped move the needle toward Harris in the last week or so of the campaign. Still, the reality is that Puerto Ricans make up a very small part of the electorate in the seven battleground states. Centro’s “Citizen Voting Age Population: 2014-2022 Dashboard” shows that as of 2022 Puerto Ricans constituted 3.8% of the Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) in Pennsylvania, 1.7% in Georgia, 1.0% in North Carolina, 1.0% in Wisconsin, 0.9% in Nevada, 0.8% in Arizona, and 0.5% in Michigan (4). Additionally, Pew Research Center has found that Puerto Ricans tend to have low voter turnout rates (5). Consequently, although Puerto Ricans probably played a very little role in determining the outcome of the presidential election, the outcome may have serious consequences for Puerto Rico and those who live there given Trump’s treatment of Puerto Rico during his first presidential term.
The newly elected governor of Puerto Rico, Jenniffer González, is a Republican who ran as the candidate of the New Progressive Party (PNP, by its acronym in Spanish) with statehood for Puerto Rico as one of the major promises of her campaign. (Un)Fortunately, Senator Mitch McConnell made clear that “there won’t be any new states admitted” to the Union in a press conference held the day after the election (6). This is a great blow to the governor-elect and the pro-statehood movement in Puerto Rico. However, results from the political status referendum held on November 5th suggest that most Puerto Ricans do not see voting on this matter as a plausible solution for the colonial status of the island. While 51% who voted in the referendum supported statehood, only 2% of all voters cast a ballot in the referendum (7). Furthermore, while it might be helpful that the governor-elect is a Republican, Puerto Rico’s newly elected resident commissioner in Washington DC, Pablo José Hernández, is a Democrat and a member of the Popular Democratic Party (PPD, by its acronym in Spanish), once the PNP’s main opposition in Puerto Rico.
¡Pero hay esperanza! There is still hope! The coalition forged between the Puerto Rican Independence Party (PIP, by its acronym in Spanish) and the Citizen Victory Movement party (MVC, by its acronym in Spanish) is a testament of the power of everyday Puerto Ricans who have hope of a better future for the island. The coalition brought together people of all stripes and reached a proportion of votes never before seen for parties outside the political mainstream.. While politics in Puerto Rico has been dominated by a two-party system that has alternated power between the PNP and the PPD for more than 50 years, the 21st century has seen the emergence of new parties focused on good governance (8). These parties sowed the seed for the PIP and the MVC to be successful as a coalition in gaining the second most votes for governor on election day. The PNP and PPD have been losing support in the last few decades having received a combined 80.7% of the vote for their gubernatorial candidates in 2016, a combined 64.9% in 2020, and 60.5% in 2024. At the same time non-mainstream parties have grown their support having received a combined 55% of the vote for their gubernatorial candidates in 2020, and 57.8% in 2024. This means there is a chance for party coalitions to reach an electoral victory against mainstream parties in 2028.
There is further hope for Puerto Ricans in the 50 states. Even though Puerto Rican voters may not have had the power to change the presidential election, Puerto Ricans still have champions in Congress, like Rep. Nydia Velázquez and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Most importantly, while we should find new ways to increase Puerto Ricans’ participation in US elections, especially in the 2026 midterm elections, there are many other ways to influence politics and society. I expect Puerto Ricans in the mainland to give continuity to our long history of social and political activism, and that our love of freedom and democracy will be our guide.
Endnotes
1 El Nuevo Día (11 de octubre de 2024). “¿Kamala Harris o Donald Trump? Conoce a quién apoya el electorado en Puerto Rico: la Encuesta de El Nuevo Día evaluó cómo se distribuirían los votos en la elección simbólica a base del apoyo que recibe cada candidato a la gobernación”. https://www.elnuevodia.com/noticias/politica/notas/kamala-harris-o-donald-trump-conoce-a-quien-apoya-el-electorado-en-puerto-rico/
2 Comisión Estatal de Elecciones de Puerto Rico. Elecciones 2024. Presidente: Resultados Isla. Última actualización de datos: Nov 20 2024 11:56AM. Accessed: Nov 21, 2024. https://elecciones2024.ceepur.org/Escrutinio_General_121/index.html#es/default/PRESIDENTE_Resumen.xml
3 Garcia-Ríos, Sergio. (Nov 3, 2024).“Univision Poll: More than 60% of Latino voters in Pennsylvania support Kamala Harris amid the controversy over calling Puerto Rico a ‘floating island of garbage’ at a Trump rally.” https://www.univision.com/noticias/elecciones-en-estados-unidos-2024/yougov-univision-poll-pennsylvania-latino-voters-show-strong-support-for-kamala-harris-amid-controversial-trump-rally-remarks?s=08
4 Citizen Voting Age Population: 2014-2022 Dashboard By Center for Puerto Rican Studies at CUNY Hunter College. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/centropr/viz/CitizenVotingAgePopulation_2014-2022Dashboard/PRCVAPOverviewDF
5 Jens Manuel Krogstad. (October 2, 2020). “Most Cuban American voters identify as Republican in 2020.” https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/10/02/most-cuban-american-voters-identify-as-republican-in-2020/
6 Delgado, Jose A. (November 7, 2024). “There won’t be any new states admitted”, says Mitch McConnell, Senate Republican leader.” https://www.elnuevodia.com/english/news/story/there-wont-be-any-new-states-admitted-says-mitch-mcconnell-senate-republican-leader/
7 Comisión Estatal de Elecciones de Puerto Rico. Elecciones 2024. Plebiscito : Resultados Isla. Última actualización de datos: Nov 20 2024 1:41PM. Accessed: Nov 21, 2024. https://elecciones2024.ceepur.org/Escrutinio_General_121/index.html#es/default/PLEBISCITO_Resumen.xml
8 For example, in 2010 the Civil Action Party managed to register in the municipality of San Juan, the Working People’s Party was active from 2010 to 2016, and the Puerto Ricans for Puerto Rico party had a candidate for governor in 2008 and 2012.